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The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales
(Journal article; Tidsskriftartikkel; Peer reviewed, 2020-03-05)
One of the most intriguing facets of the climate system is that it exhibits variability across all temporal and spatial scales; pronounced examples are temperature and precipitation. The structure of this variability, however, is not arbitrary. Over certain spatial and temporal ranges, it can be described by scaling relationships in the form of power laws in probability density distributions and ...
Estimating Remaining Carbon Budgets Using Temperature Responses Informed by CMIP6
(Journal article; Tidsskriftartikkel; Peer reviewed, 2021-07-12)
A remaining carbon budget (RCB) estimates how much CO2 we can emit and still reach a specific temperature target. The RCB concept is attractive since it easily communicates to the public and policymakers, but RCBs are also subject to uncertainties. The expected warming levels for a given carbon budget has a wide uncertainty range, which increases with less ambitious targets, i.e., with higher CO2 ...
The Structure of Climate Variability Across Scales
(Journal article; Tidsskriftartikkel; Peer reviewed, 2020-03-05)
One of the most intriguing facets of the climate system is that it exhibits variability across all
temporal and spatial scales; pronounced examples are temperature and precipitation. The structure of this
variability, however, is not arbitrary. Over certain spatial and temporal ranges, it can be described by
scaling relationships in the form of power laws in probability density distributions and ...
The Tipping Effect of Delayed Interventions on the Evolution of COVID-19 Incidence
(Journal article; Tidsskriftartikkel; Peer reviewed, 2021-04-23)
We combine infectious disease transmission and the non-pharmaceutical (NPI) intervention response to disease incidence into one closed model consisting of two coupled delay differential equations for the incidence rate and the time-dependent reproduction number. The model contains three parameters, the initial reproduction number, the intervention strength, and the response delay. The response is ...
Modelling suggests limited change in the reproduction number from reopening Norwegian kindergartens and schools during the COVID-19 pandemic
(Journal article; Tidsskriftartikkel; Peer reviewed, 2021-02-25)
<i>Background</i> - To suppress the COVID-19 outbreak, the Norwegian government closed all schools on March 13, 2020. The kindergartens reopened on April 20, and the schools on April 27 and May 11 of 2020. The effect of these measures is largely unknown since the role of children in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is still unclear. There are only a few studies of school closures as a separate ...
A Parsimonious Description and Cross-Country Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Curves
(Journal article; Tidsskriftartikkel; Peer reviewed, 2020-09-06)
In a given country, the cumulative death toll of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic
follows a sigmoid curve as a function of time. In most cases, the curve is well described by the
Gompertz function, which is characterized by two essential parameters, the initial growth rate and
the decay rate as the first epidemic wave subsides. These parameters are determined by socioeconomic
factors and ...
Estimation of Excess Mortality and Years of Life Lost to COVID-19 in Norway and Sweden between March and November 2020
(Journal article; Tidsskriftartikkel; Peer reviewed, 2021-04-08)
We estimate the weekly excess all-cause mortality in Norway and Sweden, the years of life lost (YLL) attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and the significance of mortality displacement. We computed the expected mortality by taking into account the declining trend and the seasonality in mortality in the two countries over the past 20 years. From the excess mortality in Sweden in 2019/20, we estimated ...