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dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Kristoffer
dc.date.accessioned2017-02-24T15:00:48Z
dc.date.available2017-02-24T15:00:48Z
dc.date.issued2016-01-29
dc.description.abstractA simple conceptual model for the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response to CO2 emissions is presented and analysed. It consists of linear long-memory models for the GMST anomaly response 1T to radiative forcing and the atmospheric CO2-concentration response 1C to emission rate. The responses are connected by the standard logarithmic relation between CO2 concentration and its radiative forcing. The model depends on two sensitivity parameters, T and C, and two “inertia parameters,” the memory exponents T and C. Based on observation data, and constrained by results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the likely values and range of these parameters are estimated, and projections of future warming for the parameters in this range are computed for various idealised, but instructive, emission scenarios. It is concluded that delays in the initiation of an effective global emission reduction regime is the single most important factor that influences the magnitude of global warming over the next 2 centuries. The most important aspect of this study is the simplicity and transparency of the conceptual model, which makes it a useful tool for communicating the issue to non-climatologists, students, policy makers, and the general public.en_US
dc.descriptionPublished version. Source at <a href=http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-51-2016> http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-51-2016 </a>en_US
dc.identifier.citationRypdal K. Global warming projections derived from an observation-based minimal model. Earth System Dynamics. 2016;7(1):51-70en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1319663
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/esd-7-51-2016
dc.identifier.issn2190-4979
dc.identifier.issn2190-4987
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/10361
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherEuropean Geosciences Unionen_US
dc.relation.journalEarth System Dynamics
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/KLIMAFORSK/229754/Norway/Long-range memory in Earths climate response and its implications for future global warming//en_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Matematikk: 410::Statistikk: 412en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410::Statistics: 412en_US
dc.titleGlobal warming projections derived from an observation-based minimal modelen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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