Is the Sri Lankan ecotourism industry threatened by climate change? A case study of Rekawa coastal wetland using contingent visitation approach

Abstract

This study investigates intended visitation behavior of tourists toward Rekawa wetland under anticipated climate change (CC) scenarios. An interview-based contingent visitation survey was conducted with 365 foreign and domestic tourists to estimate the effects of CC on future visitation. Based on two IPCC scenarios using two direct and three indirect climatic factors, we composed a CC environmental index. The results show a decline in number of trips equal to 43 per cent and 53 per cent under scenarios 1 and 2 respectively, but the difference is not significant. Foreign and domestic tourists differ significantly with regard to socio-demographic characteristics and beliefs about CC effects at Rekawa. Controlling for such differences, we demonstrate that foreign tourists are less likely than domestic tourists to reduce future visitation to Rekawa due to CC impacts. Still, the future of ecotourism at Rekawa wetland is at risk if adaptation measures are not taken to meet CC impacts.