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dc.contributor.authorSeroussi, Hélène
dc.contributor.authorPelle, Tyler
dc.contributor.authorLipscomb, William H.
dc.contributor.authorAbe-Ouchi, Ayako
dc.contributor.authorAlbrecht, Torsten
dc.contributor.authorAlvarez-Solas, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorAsay-Davis, Xylar S
dc.contributor.authorBarre, Jean-Baptiste
dc.contributor.authorBerends, Constantijn J.
dc.contributor.authorBernales, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorBlasco, Javier
dc.contributor.authorCaillet, Justine
dc.contributor.authorChandler, David Matthew
dc.contributor.authorCoulon, Violaine
dc.contributor.authorCullather, Richard
dc.contributor.authorDumas, Christophe
dc.contributor.authorGalton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.
dc.contributor.authorGarbe, Julius
dc.contributor.authorGillet-Chaulet, Fabien
dc.contributor.authorGladstone, Rupert
dc.contributor.authorGoelzer, Heiko
dc.contributor.authorGolledge, Nicholas
dc.contributor.authorGreve, Ralf
dc.contributor.authorGudmundsson, G. Hilmar
dc.contributor.authorHan, Holly Kyeore
dc.contributor.authorHillebrand, Trevor R.
dc.contributor.authorHoffman, Matthew J.
dc.contributor.authorHuybrechts, Philippe
dc.contributor.authorJourdain, Nicolas C.
dc.contributor.authorKlose, Ann Kristin
dc.contributor.authorLangebroek, Petra Margaretha
dc.contributor.authorLeguy, Gunter R.
dc.contributor.authorLowry, Daniel P.
dc.contributor.authorMathiot, Pierre
dc.contributor.authorMontoya, Marisa
dc.contributor.authorMorlighem, Mathieu
dc.contributor.authorNowicki, Sophie
dc.contributor.authorPattyn, Frank
dc.contributor.authorPayne, Antony J.
dc.contributor.authorQuiquet, Aurélien
dc.contributor.authorReese, Ronja
dc.contributor.authorRobinson, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorSaraste, Leopekka
dc.contributor.authorSimon, Erika G.
dc.contributor.authorSun, Sainan
dc.contributor.authorTwarog, Jake P.
dc.contributor.authorTrusel, Luke D.
dc.contributor.authorUrruty, Benoit
dc.contributor.authorBreedam, Jonas van
dc.contributor.authorvan de Wal, Roderik S. W.
dc.contributor.authorWang, Yu
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Chen
dc.contributor.authorZwinger, Thomas
dc.date.accessioned2024-09-12T11:33:31Z
dc.date.available2024-09-12T11:33:31Z
dc.date.issued2024-09-04
dc.description.abstractThe Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary effort of CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project–Phase 6) focusing on ice sheets, designed to provide an ensemble of process-based projections of the ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise over the twenty-first century. However, the behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet beyond 2100 remains largely unknown: several instability mechanisms can develop on longer time scales, potentially destabilizing large parts of Antarctica. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution until 2300 are presented here, using an ensemble of 16 ice-flow models and forcing from global climate models. Under high-emission scenarios, the Antarctic sea-level contribution is limited to less than 30 cm sea-level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, but increases rapidly thereafter to reach up to 4.4 m SLE by 2300. Simulations including ice-shelf collapse lead to an additional 1.1 m SLE on average by 2300, and can reach 6.9 m SLE. Widespread retreat is observed on that timescale in most West Antarctic basins, leading to a collapse of large sectors of West Antarctica by 2300 in 30%–40% of the ensemble. While the onset date of retreat varies among ice models, the rate of upstream propagation is highly consistent once retreat begins. Calculations of sea-level contribution including water density corrections lead to an additional ∼10% sea level and up to 50% for contributions accounting for bedrock uplift in response to ice loading. Overall, these results highlight large sea-level contributions from Antarctica and suggest that the choice of ice sheet model remains the leading source of uncertainty in multi-century projections.en_US
dc.identifier.citationSeroussi H, Pelle T, Lipscomb WH, Abe-Ouchi A, Albrecht T, Alvarez-Solas J, Asay-Davis XS, Barre, Berends CJ, Bernales J, Blasco, Caillet, Chandler DM, Coulon V, Cullather R, Dumas C, Galton-Fenzi BK, Garbe J, Gillet-Chaulet F, Gladstone R, Goelzer H, Golledge NR, Greve R, Gudmundsson GH, Han, Hillebrand, Hoffman MJ, Huybrechts P, Jourdain NC, Klose AK, Langebroek P, Leguy G, Lowry DP. Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble. Earth's Future. 2024;12(9)en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 2293269
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2024EF004561
dc.identifier.issn2328-4277
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/34703
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.relation.journalEarth's Future
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820575/EU/ Tipping Points in Antarctic Climate Components/TiPACCs/en_US
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869304/EU/PROjecTing sEa-level rise : from iCe sheets to local implicaTions/PROTECT/en_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2024 The Author(s)en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)en_US
dc.titleEvolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensembleen_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)