<i>Introduction</i>: Scale invariance of natural variability of global surface temperatures is often interpreted as a signature of nonlinear dynamics. However, the observed scaling can be adequately explained by linear energy balance involving subsystems with different response times.

We show that for a real-analytic connected holomorphically nondegenerate 5-dimensional CR-hypersurface <i>M</i> and its symmetry algebra <i>s</i> one has either: (i) dim <i>s</i> = 15 and <i>M</i> is spherical (with Levi form of signature either (2,0), or (1,1), everywhere), or (ii) dim <i>s</i> ≤ 11 where dim <i>s</i> = 11 can only occur if on a dense open subset <i>M</i> is spherical with Levi ...

The main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is ...

<p>Similarity-based approaches represent a promising direction for time series analysis. However, many such methods rely on parameter tuning, and some have shortcomings if the time series are multivariate (MTS), due to dependencies between attributes, or the time series contain missing data. In this paper, we address these challenges within the powerful context of kernel methods by proposing the ...

The key operation in Bayesian inference is to compute high-dimensional integrals. An old approximate technique is the Laplace method or approximation, which dates back to Pierre-Simon Laplace (1774). This simple idea approximates the integrand with a second-order Taylor expansion around the mode and computes the integral analytically. By developing a nested version of this classical idea, combined ...

Three simple, empirical models for growth of power consumption in the renewable energy sector are compared. These are the exponential, logistic, and power-law models. The exponential model describes growth at a fixed relative growth rate, the logistic model saturates at a fixed limit, while the power-law model describes slowing, but unlimited, growth. The model parameters are determined by regression ...

<i>INTRODUCTION</i>: The point of departure for our paper is that most modern statistical models are built to be flexible enough to model diverse data generating mechanisms. Good statistical practice requires us to limit this flexibility, which is typically controlled by a small number of parameters, to the amount “needed” to model the data at hand. The Bayesian framework provides a natural method ...

In this paper, we introduce a new concept for constructing prior distributions. We exploit the natural nested structure inherent to many model components, which defines the model component to be a flexible extension of a base model. Proper priors are defined to penalise the complexity induced by deviating from the simpler base model and are formulated after the input of a user-defined scaling parameter ...

The temporal fluctuations in global mean surface temperature are an example of a geophysical quantity that can be described using the notions of long-range persistence and scale invariance/scaling, but this description has suffered from lack of a generally accepted physical explanation. Processes with these statistical signatures can arise from nonlinear effects, for instance, through cascade-like ...

The symmetry dimension of a geometric structure is the dimension of its symmetry algebra. We investigate symmetries of almost quaternionic structures of quaternionic dimension <i>n</i>. The maximal possible symmetry is realized by the quaternionic projective space H<i>Pⁿ</i>, which is flat and has the symmetry algebra sl(<i>n</i> + 1, H) of dimension 4<i>n</i>² + ...