The autoregressive (AR) process of order p(AR(p)) is a central model in time series analysis. A Bayesian approach requires the user to define a prior distribution for the coefficients of the AR(p) model. Although it is easy to write down some prior, it is not at all obvious how to understand and interpret the prior distribution, to ensure that it behaves according to the users' prior knowledge. In ...

Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is a stationary stochastic process used to model anti-persistent or persistent dependency structures in observed time series. Properties of the autocovariance function of fGn are characterised by the Hurst exponent (<i>H)</i>, which in Bayesian contexts typically has been assigned a uniform prior on the unit interval. This paper argues why a uniform prior is ...

We compute the Hilbert polynomial and the Poincar´e function counting the number of fixed jet-order differential invariants of conformal metric structures modulo local diffeomorphisms, and we describe the field of rational differential invariants separating generic orbits of the diffeomorphism pseudogroup action. This resolves the local recognition problem for conformal structures.

Various interpretations of the notion of a trend in the context of global warming are discussed, contrasting the difference between viewing a trend as the deterministic response to an external forcing and viewing it as a slow variation which can be separated from the background spectral continuum of long-range persistent climate noise. The emphasis in this paper is on the latter notion, and a general ...

We define generalized Hamming weights for almost affine codes. We show that this definition is natural since we can extend some well known properties of t he generalized Hamming weights for linear codes, to almost affine codes. In addition we discus s duality of almost affine codes, and of the smaller class of multilinear codes.

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records ...

Background:<br>There is limited evidence of the linkage between contraceptive use, the range of methods available and level of contraceptive stocks at health facilities and distance to facility in developing countries. The present analysis aims at examining the influence of contraceptive method availability and distance to the nearby facilities on modern contraceptive utilization among married women ...

With an aging patient population and increasing complexity in patient disease trajectories, physicians are often met with complex patient histories from which clinical decisions must be made. Due to the increasing rate of adverse events and hospitals facing financial penalties for readmission, there has never been a greater need to enforce evidence-led medical decision-making using available ...

Melanoma is the deadliest form of skin cancer, and early detection is crucial for patient survival. Computer systems can assist in melanoma detection, but are not widespread in clinical practice. In 2016, an open challenge in classification of dermoscopic images of skin lesions was announced. A training set of 900 images with corresponding class labels and semi-automatic/manual segmentation masks ...

Black carbon (BC) and other light-absorbing particles deposited on snow and ice are known to perturb the surface radiative balance. There are few published observations of the concentration of these particles in the snow in Scandinavia and the European Arctic. We measured BC concentrations in snow samples collected in this region from 2007 to 2009, and we present the results here. The data set ...