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dc.contributor.authorEguíluz, Victor M.
dc.contributor.authorFernández-Gracia, Juan
dc.contributor.authorIrigoien, Xabier
dc.contributor.authorDuarte-Quesada, Carlos Manuel
dc.date.accessioned2017-03-16T14:04:15Z
dc.date.available2017-03-16T14:04:15Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractRapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was previously considered too sparse to allow for adequate validation. Here, we provide quantitative evidence that the extent of Arctic shipping in the period 2011–2014 is already significant and that it is concentrated (i) in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and (ii) predominantly accessed via the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Thick ice along the forecasted direct trans-Arctic route was still present in 2014, preventing transit. Although Arctic shipping remains constrained by the extent of ice coverage, during every September, this coverage is at a minimum, allowing the highest levels of shipping activity. Access to Arctic resources, particularly fisheries, is the most important driver of Arctic shipping thus far.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe research reported in this Article was supported by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), MINECO (Spain), and FEDER (EU) through project MODASS (FIS2011-24785).en_US
dc.descriptionPublished version. Source at <a href=http://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682>http://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682</a>. License <a href=https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/>CC BY 4.0</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.citationEguíluz et al. A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010-2014. Scientific Reports. 2016;6:30682en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1417205
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/srep30682
dc.identifier.issn2045-2322
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/10743
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen_US
dc.relation.journalScientific Reports
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectClimate-change impactsen_US
dc.subjectEnvironmental impacten_US
dc.subjectScientific dataen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Geosciences: 450en_US
dc.titleA quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010-2014en_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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