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dc.contributor.authorKileng, Hege
dc.contributor.authorBernfort, Lars
dc.contributor.authorGutteberg, Tore Jarl
dc.contributor.authorMoen, Odd Sverre
dc.contributor.authorKristiansen, Magnhild Gangsøy
dc.contributor.authorPaulssen, Eyvind Jakob
dc.contributor.authorBerg, Leif Kyrre
dc.contributor.authorFlorholmen, Jon
dc.contributor.authorGoll, Rasmus
dc.date.accessioned2018-02-14T12:42:05Z
dc.date.available2018-02-14T12:42:05Z
dc.date.issued2017-09-16
dc.description.abstract<i>Background</i>: Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013–2050 in a low-risk area. <p> <p><i>Methods</i>: We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection. <p> <p><i>Results</i>: The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%. <p> <p><i>Conclusion</i>: These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease.en_US
dc.descriptionSource at: <a href=https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0> https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0. </a>© The Author(s). 2017en_US
dc.identifier.citationKileng, H., Bernfort, L., Gutteberg, T., Moen, O.S., Kristiansen, M.G., Paulssen, E.J. ... Goll, R. (2017). Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway. <i>BMC Infectious Diseases</i>, 17:624. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1515720
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0
dc.identifier.issn1471-2334
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/12170
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherBMCen_US
dc.relation.ispartofKileng, H. (2019). Chronic hepatitis C: Epidemiology, viral resistance, and public health implications. (Doctoral thesis). <a href=https://hdl.handle.net/10037/15612>https://hdl.handle.net/10037/15612 . </a>
dc.relation.journalBMC Infectious Diseases
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Medisinske Fag: 700::Klinisk medisinske fag: 750en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Medical disciplines: 700::Clinical medical disciplines: 750en_US
dc.titleFuture complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: Projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norwayen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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