Avoidable cancer cases in the Nordic countries - The impact of overweight and obesity

Abstract

Background: <br>Several types of cancers are causally linked to overweight and obesity which are increasing in the Nordic countries. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden linked to overweight and obesity in the Nordic countries and estimate the potential for cancer prevention.<br> Methods: <br>Under different prevalence scenarios of overweight and obesity, numbers of cancers in the Nordic countries in the coming 30 years (2016-2045) were estimated for 13 cancer sites, and compared to the projected number of cancers if the prevalence stayed constant. The Prevent macrosimulation model was used.<br> Results: <br>Over the period 2016-2045, 205,000 cancer cases out of the 2.1 million expected for the 13 studied cancer sites (9.5%) could be avoided in the Nordic countries.by totally eliminating overweight and obesity. The largest proportional impact was found for esophageal adenocarcinoma (24%), and the highest absolute impacts was observed for colon (44638) and postmenopausal breast cancer (41135). <br> Conclusion: <br>Decreased prevalence of overweight and obesity would reduce the cancer burden in the Nordic countries. The results from this study form an important step to increase awareness and priorities in cancer control by controlling overweight and obesity.