Predicting Basic Military Performance for Conscripts in the Norwegian Armed Forces

Abstract

The Norwegian Armed Forces have made major changes to the enlistment and selection system for conscripts in recent years. In this paper, the predictive validity of various selection criteria for Military Performance is examined. The sample consisted of 3,276 conscripts, of whom 18 percent were female. The predictors in the analysis were General Mental Ability, Self-Perceived Physical Fitness, Social and Life Skills, Self-Perceived Military Fit, Tested Physical Fitness and Officer-Rated Suitability. Military Performance was assessed by an officer towards the end of the basic one-year military service. Bivariate correlations between the predictors and Military Performance were studied for men and women separately. The best predictors were Tested Physical Fitness for men and Officer-Rated Suitability for women. A step-wise hierarchical moderated multiple regression analysis was conducted. A small, but significant part of the variance was explained by the model. Both self-reported variables and other predictors made a small, but significant contribution to improving the model. The results indicated that the two-step selection process was valid for predicting military performance for both men and women.