Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Kristoffer
dc.date.accessioned2018-08-24T12:36:21Z
dc.date.available2018-08-24T12:36:21Z
dc.date.issued2018-07-21
dc.description.abstractThe main features of the instrumental global mean surface temperature (GMST) are reasonably well described by a simple linear response model driven by anthropogenic, volcanic and solar forcing. This model acts as a linear long-memory filter of the forcing signal. The physical interpretation of this filtering is the delayed response due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. This description is considerably more accurate if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are regarded as additional forcings of the global temperature and hence subject to the same filtering as the other forcing components. By considering these as predictors in a linear regression scheme, more than 92% of the variance in the instrumental GMST over the period 1870–2017 is explained by this model, in particular, all features of the 1998–2015 hiatus, including its death. While the more prominent pauses during 1870–1915 and 1940–1970 can be attributed to clustering in time of strong volcanic eruptions, the recent hiatus is an unremarkable phenomenon that is attributed to ENSO with a small contribution from solar activity.en_US
dc.descriptionSource at <a href=https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030064>https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030064</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.citationRypdal, K. (2018). The Life and Death of the Recent Global Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explained. Climate, 6(3),64. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6030064en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1598188
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/cli6030064
dc.identifier.issn2225-1154
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/13595
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherMDPIen_US
dc.relation.journalClimate
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Matematikk: 410en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410en_US
dc.subjectHiatusen_US
dc.subjectAttributionen_US
dc.subjectVolcanic forcingen_US
dc.subjectSolar forcingen_US
dc.subjectAnthropogenic forcingen_US
dc.subjectAMOen_US
dc.subjectENSOen_US
dc.subjectMultiple regressionen_US
dc.subjectLong-memory responseen_US
dc.titleThe Life and Death of the Recent Global Warming Hiatus Parsimoniously Explaineden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


File(s) in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following collection(s)

Show simple item record