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dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Veronika Gjertsen
dc.contributor.authorArnstad, Ellen Dalen
dc.contributor.authorAalto, Kristiina
dc.contributor.authorBerntson, Lillemor
dc.contributor.authorEkelund, Maria
dc.contributor.authorFasth, Anders
dc.contributor.authorGlerup, Mia
dc.contributor.authorHerlin, Troels
dc.contributor.authorNielsen, Susan
dc.contributor.authorPeltoniemi, Suvi
dc.contributor.authorZak, Marek
dc.contributor.authorRygg, Marite
dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Martin Wibe
dc.contributor.authorNordal, Ellen Berit
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-22T12:17:23Z
dc.date.available2019-01-22T12:17:23Z
dc.date.issued2018-05-03
dc.description.abstract<i>Background</i>: The aim was to develop prediction rules that may guide early treatment decisions based on baseline clinical predictors of long-term unfavorable outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). <p> <p><i>Methods</i>: In the Nordic JIA cohort, we assessed baseline disease characteristics as predictors of the following outcomes 8 years after disease onset. Non-achievement of remission off medication according to the preliminary Wallace criteria, functional disability assessed by Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ) and Physical Summary Score (PhS) of the Child Health Questionnaire, and articular damage assessed by the Juvenile Arthritis Damage Index-Articular (JADIA). Multivariable models were constructed, and cross-validations were performed by repeated partitioning of the cohort into training sets for developing prediction models and validation sets to test predictive ability.<p> <p><i>Results</i>: The total cohort constituted 423 children. Remission status was available in 410 children: 244 (59.5%) of these did not achieve remission off medication at the final study visit. Functional disability was present in 111/340 (32.7%) children assessed by CHAQ and 40/199 (20.1%) by PhS, and joint damage was found in 29/216 (13.4%). Model performance was acceptable for making predictions of long-term outcome. In validation sets, the area under the curves (AUCs) in the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were 0.78 (IQR 0.72–0.82) for non-achievement of remission off medication, 0.73 (IQR 0.67–0.76) for functional disability assessed by CHAQ, 0.74 (IQR 0.65–0.80) for functional disability assessed by PhS, and 0.73 (IQR 0.63–0.76) for joint damage using JADI-A.<p> <p><i>Conclusion</i>: The feasibility of making long-term predictions of JIA outcome based on early clinical assessment is demonstrated. The prediction models have acceptable precision and require only readily available baseline variables. Further testing in other cohorts is warranted.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipHelse Nord Research Fundsen_US
dc.identifier.citationRypdal, V.G., Arnstad, E.D., Aalto, K., Berntson, L., Ekelund, M., Fasth, A., ... Nordal, E. (2018). Predicting unfavorable long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: Results from the Nordic cohort study. <i>Arthritis Research & Therapy</i>, 20:91. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13075-018-1571-6en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1592822
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s13075-018-1571-6
dc.identifier.issn1478-6362
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/14508
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherBMCen_US
dc.relation.ispartofRypdal, V.G. (2021). Prediction of unfavorable outcome in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA) and assessment of the long-term outcomes in JIA-associated uveitis – A prospective Nordic multicenter study of JIA from childhood to adulthood. (Doctoral thesis). <a href=https://hdl.handle.net/10037/21148>https://hdl.handle.net/10037/21148</a>
dc.relation.journalArthritis Research & Therapy
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectJuvenile idiopathic arthritisen_US
dc.subjectDisease activityen_US
dc.subjectPredictionen_US
dc.subjectOutcome researchen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Medical disciplines: 700::Clinical medical disciplines: 750::Pediatrics: 760en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Medisinske Fag: 700::Klinisk medisinske fag: 750::Pediatri: 760en_US
dc.titlePredicting unfavorable long-term outcome in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: Results from the Nordic cohort studyen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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