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dc.contributor.authorPlanque, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorMullon, Christian
dc.contributor.authorArneberg, Per
dc.contributor.authorEide, Arne
dc.contributor.authorFromentin, Jean-Marc
dc.contributor.authorHeymans, Johanna J
dc.contributor.authorHoel, Alf Håkon
dc.contributor.authorNiiranen, Susa
dc.contributor.authorOttersen, Geir
dc.contributor.authorSandø, Anne Britt
dc.contributor.authorSommerkorn, Martin
dc.contributor.authorThébaud, Olivier
dc.contributor.authorThorvik, Thorbjørn
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-08T10:57:37Z
dc.date.available2019-08-08T10:57:37Z
dc.date.issued2019-03-01
dc.description.abstractAnticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: “fisheries management,” “ecosystem,” “ocean climate,” and “global context and governance” for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated for each of the four single perspectives before being integrated into multiple‐perspective scenarios. Selected scenarios are then developed into storylines. Focusing on individual perspectives until near the end allows actors with diverse cultures, interests and horizons to confront their own notions of the future. We illustrate the method with the exploration of the futures of the Barents Sea MSES by 2050. We emphasize the following lessons learned: first, many actors are not familiar with scenario building and attention must be paid to explaining the purpose, methodology, and benefits of scenarios exercises. Second, although the Barents Sea MSES is relatively well understood, uncertainties about its future are significant. Third, it is important to focus on unlikely events. Fourth, all perspectives should be treated equally. Fifth, as MSES are continuously changing, we can only be prepared for future changes if we collectively keep preparing.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipEuromarine+ program Institute of Marine Research in Norwayen_US
dc.descriptionSource at <a href=https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12356>https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12356</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.citationPlanque, B., Mullon, C., Arneberg, P., Eide, A., Fromentin, J.-M., Heymans, J.J., ... Thorvik, T. (2019). A participatory scenario method to explore the future of marine social‐ecological systems. <i>Fish and Fisheries, 20</i>, 434-451. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12356en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1690043
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/faf.12356
dc.identifier.issn1467-2960
dc.identifier.issn1467-2979
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/15872
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.relation.journalFish and Fisheries
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Agriculture and fishery disciplines: 900::Fisheries science: 920::Resource biology: 921en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Landbruks- og Fiskerifag: 900::Fiskerifag: 920::Ressursbiologi: 921en_US
dc.subjectBarents Seaen_US
dc.subjectfuture studiesen_US
dc.subjectmultiple perspectivesen_US
dc.subjectparticipatory fisheries managementen_US
dc.subjectstorylinesen_US
dc.subjectuncertaintyen_US
dc.titleA participatory scenario method to explore the future of marine social‐ecological systemsen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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