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dc.contributor.authorSmith, Todd
dc.contributor.authorMuller, David C.
dc.contributor.authorMoons, Karel G.M.
dc.contributor.authorCross, Amanda J.
dc.contributor.authorJohansson, Mattias
dc.contributor.authorFerrari, Pietro
dc.contributor.authorFagherazzi, Guy
dc.contributor.authorPeeters, Petra H. M.
dc.contributor.authorSeveri, Gianluca
dc.contributor.authorHüsing, Anika
dc.contributor.authorKaaks, Rudolf
dc.contributor.authorTjønneland, Anne
dc.contributor.authorOlsen, Anja
dc.contributor.authorOvervad, Kim
dc.contributor.authorBonet, Catalina
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez-Barranco, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorHuerta, Jose Maria
dc.contributor.authorGurrea, Aurelio Barricarte
dc.contributor.authorBradbury, Kathryn Erica
dc.contributor.authorTrichopoulou, Antonia
dc.contributor.authorBamia, Christina
dc.contributor.authorOrfanos, Philippos
dc.contributor.authorPalli, Domenico
dc.contributor.authorPala, Valeria
dc.contributor.authorVineis, Paolo
dc.contributor.authorBueno-De-Mesquita, Bas
dc.contributor.authorOhlsson, Bodil
dc.contributor.authorHarlid, Sophia
dc.contributor.authorVan Guelpen, Bethany
dc.contributor.authorSkeie, Guri
dc.contributor.authorWeiderpass, Elisabete
dc.contributor.authorJenab, Mazda
dc.contributor.authorMurphy, Neil
dc.contributor.authorRiboli, Eilo
dc.contributor.authorGunter, Marc J.
dc.contributor.authorAleksandrova, Krasimira Jekova
dc.contributor.authorTzoulaki, Ioanna
dc.date.accessioned2020-02-12T12:24:34Z
dc.date.available2020-02-12T12:24:34Z
dc.date.issued2018-04-03
dc.description.abstract<i>Objective</i> - To systematically identify and validate published colorectal cancer risk prediction models that do not require invasive testing in two large population-based prospective cohorts.<p><p> <i>Design</i> - Models were identified through an update of a published systematic review and validated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the UK Biobank. The performance of the models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer within 5 or 10 years after study enrolment was assessed by discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (plots of observed vs predicted probability).<p><p> <i>Results</i> - The systematic review and its update identified 16 models from 8 publications (8 colorectal, 5 colon and 3 rectal). The number of participants included in each model validation ranged from 41 587 to 396 515, and the number of cases ranged from 115 to 1781. Eligible and ineligible participants across the models were largely comparable. Calibration of the models, where assessable, was very good and further improved by recalibration. The C-statistics of the models were largely similar between validation cohorts with the highest values achieved being 0.70 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.72) in the UK Biobank and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.74) in EPIC.<p><p> <i>Conclusion</i> - Several of these non-invasive models exhibited good calibration and discrimination within both external validation populations and are therefore potentially suitable candidates for the facilitation of risk stratification in population-based colorectal screening programmes. Future work should both evaluate this potential, through modelling and impact studies, and ascertain if further enhancement in their performance can be obtained.en_US
dc.identifier.citationSmith T, Muller DC, Moons KG, Cross AJ, Johansson M, Ferrari P, Fagherazzi G, Peeters PHM, Severi G, Hüsing A, Kaaks R, Tjønneland A, Olsen A, Overvad K, Bonet C, Rodríguez-Barranco M, Huerta JM, Gurrea AB, Bradbury KE, Trichopoulou A, Bamia C, Orfanos P, Palli D, Pala V, Vineis P, Bueno-De-Mesquita, Ohlsson B, Harlid S, Van Guelpen B, Skeie G, Weiderpass E, Jenab M, Murphy N, Riboli E, Gunter MJ, Aleksandrova, Tzoulaki I. Comparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals: A systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studies. Gut. 2019;68(4):672-683en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1703953
dc.identifier.doi10.1136/gutjnl-2017-315730
dc.identifier.issn0017-5749
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/17376
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherBMJ Publishing Groupen_US
dc.relation.journalGut
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/?/?/EU/?/?/en_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2019 The Author(s)en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Medical disciplines: 700en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Medisinske Fag: 700en_US
dc.titleComparison of prognostic models to predict the occurrence of colorectal cancer in asymptomatic individuals: A systematic literature review and external validation in the EPIC and UK Biobank prospective cohort studiesen_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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