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dc.contributor.advisorRypdal, Martin
dc.contributor.authorMartinsen, Andreas Rostrup
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-24T08:26:47Z
dc.date.available2020-08-24T08:26:47Z
dc.date.issued2020-06-15
dc.description.abstractWe are changing the global climate by altering the Earths energy balance through the emission of greenhouse gasses. The international community aims to prevent dangerous warming with mitigative efforts. A remaining carbon budget (RCB) can roughly quantify an allowable amount of emissions for keeping the temperature below a set target. We have built a simple climate model using impulse response functions and parameterizations of the forcing of atmospheric radiatively active agents. The Simple Response Model (SRM) emulates CMIP5 ensemble models over several SSP emission scenarios. We deliver compelling visualization of the risk of warming associated with carbon budgets using probability density functions around TCREs. The risk of warming and uncertainty in the carbon budget increase with less ambitious targets. By comparing the SRM with the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) model, we verify the SRMs results. Results from incorporating regional Arctic amplification show more substantial uncertainties and more damaging temperature responses. We added possible nonlinear effects into the model framework, proving it possible under reasonable levels of additional forcing. The linearity of the TCRE falls apart for strongly nonlinear Earth system feedbacks.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/19115
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherUiT The Arctic University of Norwayen_US
dc.publisherUiT Norges arktiske universiteten_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2020 The Author(s)
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)en_US
dc.subject.courseIDEOM-3901
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Matematikk: 410en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410en_US
dc.titleAssessment of the Remaining Carbon Budget: A Comparison of a Simple Response Model and the MAGICC Model.en_US
dc.typeMaster thesisen_US
dc.typeMastergradsoppgaveen_US


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Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)