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dc.contributor.authorStoll, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorValkonen, Teresa Maaria
dc.contributor.authorGraversen, Rune
dc.contributor.authorNoer, Gunnar
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-28T12:27:55Z
dc.date.available2020-08-28T12:27:55Z
dc.date.issued2020-02-13
dc.description.abstractThe capability of a regional (AROME‐Arctic) and a global (ECMWF HRES) weather‐prediction model are compared for simulating a well‐observed polar low (PL). This PL developed on 3–4 March 2008 and was measured by dropsondes released from three flights during the IPY‐THORPEX campaign. Validation against these measurements reveals that both models simulate the PL reasonably well. AROME‐Arctic appears to represent the cloud structures and the high local variability more realistically. The high local variability causes standard error statistics to be similar for AROME‐Arctic and ECMWF HRES. A spatial verification technique reveals that AROME‐Arctic has improved skills at small scales for extreme values. However, the error growth of the forecast, especially in the location of the PL, is faster in AROME‐Arctic than in ECMWF HRES. This is likely associated with larger convection‐induced perturbations in the former than the latter model. Additionally, the PL development is analysed. This PL has two stages, an initial baroclinic and a convective mature stage. Sensible heat flux and condensational heat release both contribute to strengthen the initial baroclinic environment. In the mature stage, latent heat release appears to maintain the system. At least two conditions must be met for this stage to develop: (a) the sensible heat flux sufficiently destabilises the local environment around the PL, and (b) sufficient moisture is available for condensational heat release. More than half of the condensed moisture within the system originates from the surroundings. The propagation of the PL is “pulled” towards the area of strongest condensational heating. Finally, the sensitivity of the PL to the sea‐surface temperature is analysed. The maximum near‐surface wind speed connected to the system increases by 1–2 m·s<sup>−1</sup> per K of surface warming and a second centre develops in cases of highly increased temperature.en_US
dc.identifier.citationStoll P, Valkonen, Graversen, Noer. A well-observed polar low analysed with a regional and a global weather-prediction model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 2020;146(729):1740-1767en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1819369
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/qj.3764
dc.identifier.issn0035-9009
dc.identifier.issn1477-870X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/19180
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherRoyal Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.relation.ispartofStoll, P.J. (2020). On polar lows and their formation. (Doctoral thesis). <a href=https://hdl.handle.net/10037/19183>https://hdl.handle.net/10037/19183</a>.
dc.relation.journalQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/POLARPROG/280573/Norway/Advanced models and weather prediction in the Arctic: Enhanced capacity from observations and polar process representations/ALERTNESS/en_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2020 The Author(s)en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453en_US
dc.titleA well-observed polar low analysed with a regional and a global weather-prediction modelen_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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