Uncertainty Estimation and Visualization of Wind in Weather Forecasts

Abstract

The Collaborative Symbiotic Weather Forecasting system, CSWF, let individual users do on-demand small region, short-term, and very high-resolution forecasts. When the regions have some overlap, a symbiotic forecast can be produced based on the individual forecasts from each region. Small differences in where the center of the region is located when there is complex terrain in the region, leads to significant differences in the forecasted values of wind speed and direction. These differences reflect the uncertainty of the numerical model. This paper describes two different ways of presenting these differences using a traditional map based approach on a laptop and a display wall, and an augmented reality approach on a tablet. The approaches have their distinct advantages and disadvantages depending on the actual use and requirements of the user.