Influence of sea ice on ship routes and speed along the Arctic Northeast Passage

Abstract

The accelerated melting of sea ice and the growing influx of ships in the Arctic pose significant challenges to navigational safety and the resilient development of the Arctic routes. This study aims to explore the influence of sea ice on ship routes and speed by analyzing the spatiotemporal correlation of Sea Ice Concentration (SIC), Sea Ice Thickness (SIT), Sea Ice Volume (SIV), and Automatic Identification System (AIS) data along the Northeast Passage (NEP) in 2022. Our findings indicate that during the navigation window period (July–October), 115 ships traversed the NEP. It was observed that ships preferred navigating at speeds ranging from 6kn to 14kn when the SIC was below 10% and the SIT was less than 0.1m. Compared with cargo ships and tankers, the trajectory and speed distributions of other ships show greater differences under the influence of sea ice. Furthermore, our results suggest that the SIV, compared to the SIC and SIT, could better reflect the influence of sea ice on ship navigation. These insights are crucial for developing management strategies in Arctic routes.