Rapid Arctic warming and extreme weather events in Eastern Europe and Western to Central Asia

Abstract

There is an ongoing debate on the relationship between accelerated warming in the Arctic and extreme weather patterns in mid-latitudes. As extreme weather events have dramatic socioeconomic costs, it is important to investigate the possibility of the increased risk of such events in mid-latitudes. We investigated changes in the frequency of extreme weather events in Eastern Europe and Western to Central Asia (30-60^◦N, 20-75^◦ 6 E) in the post-Arctic amplification (2002–2022) compared to the pre-Arctic amplification (1979–1999) period. We analyzed the daily detrended near-surface temperature and precipitation of the ERA5 data. There is no robust evidence for the contribution of Arctic amplification to changes in extreme precipitation in Eastern Europe and Western to Central Asia. Most regions of the study area have experienced a decrease in annual precipitation in the post-Arctic amplification period. We also identified an increase in consecutive dry days in most parts of Central Asia by approximately 16 days per year, which could be attributed to a warmer climate because dry areas generally become drier in a warmer climate. Greater warming of the Earth in the more recent period has been associated with a significant increase in both warm days and nights and a significant decrease in cold days and nights over Eastern Europe and Western to Central Asia. Depending on the season, we identified both intensification and weakening of the upper tropospheric jet stream in the post-Arctic amplification period. The jet stream is intensified from the eastern Black Sea toward northern Kazakhstan and southeastern Russia in spring. In contrast, it has significantly weakened in the northern Mediterranean Sea and western Kazakhstan in summer and the Caspian Sea and Caucasus in autumn. Our results have important implications for a better understanding of the potential impact of rapid Arctic warming on extreme weather events in mid-latitudes.