Resilient food security in a time of climate change: A scenario analysis of ASKO NORD’s food supply chain management

Abstract

In an era of accelerating climate change, this thesis explores how Northern Norway´s food supply chain can strengthen its resilience through strategic scenario planning and adaptive measures. The study investigates both the short-term (10-year) and long-term (30-year) impacts of climate change on regional food logistics, using ASKO NORD as a case study. Drawing on resilience theory, the research integrates concepts from supply chain management and climate adaptation to evaluate vulnerabilities in governance, infrastructure, and operational continuity.

A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining qualitative interviews with key stakeholders and a quantitative survey targeting municipal officials and logistics professionals. The findings reveal that extreme weather events are increasingly disrupting transport routes, exposing systemic weaknesses in existing logistics infrastructure. While ASKO NORD demonstrates a degree of operational flexibility, major challenges persist—particularly in relation to regulatory rigidity, infrastructure limitations, and insufficient coordination between public and private actors.

The discussion emphasizes the need for decentralized decision-making, real-time risk assessment tools, and a more diversified import strategy. From a long-term perspective, strengthening local food production, enhancing national and Nordic cooperation, and investing in climate-resilient infrastructure are critical for ensuring regional food security. This thesis contributes a region-specific resilience framework that may be applicable to other Arctic and remote regions facing similar climate-induced supply chain risks.