Global warming projections derived from an observation-based minimal model
Permanent lenke
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/8455Dato
2015-09-18Type
Journal articleTidsskriftartikkel
Forfatter
Rypdal, KristofferSammendrag
A simple conceptual model for the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response
to CO2 emissions is presented and analysed. It consists of linear long-memory models
for the GMST anomaly response ∆T to radiative forcing and atmospheric CO2
-
5 concentration response ∆C to emission rate. The responses are connected by the
standard logarithmic relation between CO2 concentration and its radiative forcing. The
model depends on two sensitivity parameters, αT and αC, and two “inertia parameters”,
the memory exponents βT and βC. Based on observation data, and constrained
by results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the likely
10 values and range of these parameters are estimated, and projections of future warming
for the parameters in this range are computed for various idealised, but instructive,
emission scenarios. It is concluded that delays in the initiation of an effective global
emission reduction regime is the single most important factor that influences the magnitude
of global warming over the next two centuries. The main value of this study is
15 the simplicity and transparency of the conceptual model, which makes it a useful tool
for communicating the issue to non-climate scientists, students, policy-makers, and the
general public.
Forlag
Copernicus GmbHSitering
Earth System Dynamics Discussions 6(2015) s. 1789-1813Metadata
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