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dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Martin Wibe
dc.contributor.authorSugihara, George
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-27T12:31:16Z
dc.date.available2019-08-27T12:31:16Z
dc.date.issued2019-05-30
dc.description.abstractFor dengue fever and other seasonal epidemics we show how the stability of the preceding inter-outbreak period can predict subsequent total outbreak magnitude, and that a feasible stability metric can be computed from incidence data alone. As an observable of a dynamical system, incidence data contains information about the underlying mechanisms: climatic drivers, changing serotype pools, the ecology of the vector populations, and evolving viral strains. We present mathematical arguments to suggest a connection between stability measured in incidence data during the inter-outbreak period and the size of the effective susceptible population. The method is illustrated with an analysis of dengue incidence in San Juan, Puerto Rico, where forecasts can be made as early as three to four months ahead of an outbreak. These results have immediate significance for public health planning, and can be used in combination with existing forecasting methods and more comprehensive dengue models.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipNational Science Foundation (NSF) DoD-Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) Lenfest Foundation Award McQuown Chair in Natural Sciences, University of California, San Diegoen_US
dc.descriptionSource at <a href=https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y>https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y. </a> © The Author(s) 2019en_US
dc.identifier.citationRypdal, M.W. & Sugihara, G. (2019). Inter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemics. <i>Nature Communications, 10</i>:2374. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10099-yen_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1710255
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41467-019-10099-y
dc.identifier.issn2041-1723
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/16013
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherNature Researchen_US
dc.relation.journalNature Communications
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410::Statistics: 412en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Matematikk: 410::Statistikk: 412en_US
dc.titleInter-outbreak stability reflects the size of the susceptible pool and forecasts magnitudes of seasonal epidemicsen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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