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dc.contributor.authorMyrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik
dc.contributor.authorRiechers, Keno
dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Martin Wibe
dc.contributor.authorBoers, Niklas
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-24T13:23:52Z
dc.date.available2022-11-24T13:23:52Z
dc.date.issued2022-06-20
dc.description.abstractPaleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Knowledge of the dating uncertainties is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses, for example, for identification and dating of stadial– interstadial transitions in Greenland ice core records during glacial intervals, for comparing the variability in different proxy archives, and for model-data comparisons in general. In this study we develop a statistical framework to quantify and propagate dating uncertainties in layer counted proxy archives using the example of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structured component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a regression model, and a noise component that represents the fluctuations of the underlying physical processes, as well as unbiased counting errors. The joint dating uncertainties for all depths can then be described by a multivariate Gaussian process from which the chronology (such as the GICC05) can be sampled. We show how the effect of a potential counting bias can be incorporated in our framework. Furthermore we present refined estimates of the occurrence times of Dansgaard–Oeschger events evidenced in Greenland ice cores together with a complete uncertainty quantification of these timings.en_US
dc.identifier.citationMyrvoll-Nilsen, Riechers, Rypdal, Boers. Comprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core records. Climate of the Past. 2022;18(6):1275-1294en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 2055312
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/cp-18-1275-2022
dc.identifier.issn1814-9324
dc.identifier.issn1814-9332
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/27537
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherCopernicus Publicationsen_US
dc.relation.journalClimate of the Past
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/ 820970/EU/Tipping Points in the Earth System/TiPES/en_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2022 The Author(s)en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)en_US
dc.titleComprehensive uncertainty estimation of the timing of Greenland warmings in the Greenland ice core recordsen_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)