Modelling tourism demand, travel mode choice and destination loyalty

Abstract

This dissertation has three simultaneous purposes: (1) to investigate the effects of both economic and non-economic factors on the domestic tourist flow to Khanh Hoa province in the long term and the short term; (2) to examine how the characteristics of domestic tourists and the attributes of travel modes influence tourists’ choice of travel mode to Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa; and (3) to investigate how satisfaction and switching barriers influence destination loyalty. To achieve the first purpose, the dissertation has used the general-to-specific approach; for the second purpose, the multinomial probit model has been applied, and structural equation modelling has been used to accomplish the third purpose. For the first purpose, the findings reveal that weather variables have a significant effect on the tourism demand in both the short term and the long term. Furthermore, a positive effect from the lagged dependent variable suggests that word-of-mouth recommendation to potential tourists has good effects for the Khanh Hoa tourism industry. Also, the demand from Vietnamese tourists seems to be highly sensitive to tourism costs. Meanwhile, in the study on travel mode choice, travel time and cost, mode quality, and income are key elements in explaining the tourists’ behaviour. Tourists with a lower income tend to be more sensitive to change in the per-kilometre cost; high-income tourists are much more likely to choose a plane or train rather than a coach. Finally, in the study on tourists’ loyalty behaviour, the findings indicate that both satisfaction and switching barriers have significant effects on this behaviour. Of the multi-components of switching barriers, interpersonal relationships and switching costs have positive impacts, while lack of attractiveness of other destinations has a negative effect on destination loyalty. Furthermore, all three dimensions of tourist satisfaction and overall satisfaction have positive effects on destination loyalty.