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dc.contributor.advisorRypdal, Martin
dc.contributor.advisorRypdal, Kristoffer
dc.contributor.authorMyklebust, Erik Bryhn
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-05T06:14:05Z
dc.date.available2017-10-05T06:14:05Z
dc.date.issued2017-06-01
dc.description.abstractRecord lows in sea ice cover have recently sparked new interest in the small ice cap instability. The change in albedo when sea ice becomes open water introduces a nonlinearity called the ice-albedo feedback. Forcing a joint energy- balance and sea ice model can lead to unstable ice caps in certain parameter regimes. When the ice caps are unstable, a small perturbation will initiate a tipping point in the sea ice cover. For tipping points in general, a number of studies have pointed out that increasing variance and autocorrelation in time series can be used to predict abrupt transitions, but that the rise in one alone, can cause false alarms. In this study, we will examine these methods, as well as propose new methods that are specific to the problem at hand, and that are more robust when it comes to predicting the abrupt change in sea ice cover. We further investigate the hysteresis that occurs after an abrupt transition and show that the thermal inertia of the deep ocean may delay the recovery of the sea ice cover by several decades in scenarios where pre-industrial CO2 concentration is restored on century time scale.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/11619
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherUiT The Arctic University of Norwayen_US
dc.publisherUiT Norges arktiske universiteten_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2017 The Author(s)
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0)en_US
dc.subject.courseIDEOM-3901
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410::Applied mathematics: 413en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Matematikk: 410::Anvendt matematikk: 413en_US
dc.titleModelling the future of the arctic sea ice coveren_US
dc.typeMaster thesisen_US
dc.typeMastergradsoppgaveen_US


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Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0)