A Parsimonious Description and Cross-Country Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Curves
Permanent link
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/23157Date
2020-09-06Type
Journal articleTidsskriftartikkel
Peer reviewed
Abstract
In a given country, the cumulative death toll of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic
follows a sigmoid curve as a function of time. In most cases, the curve is well described by the
Gompertz function, which is characterized by two essential parameters, the initial growth rate and
the decay rate as the first epidemic wave subsides. These parameters are determined by socioeconomic
factors and the countermeasures to halt the epidemic. The Gompertz model implies that the total
death toll depends exponentially, and hence very sensitively, on the ratio between these rates.
The remarkably different epidemic curves for the first epidemic wave in Sweden and Norway and
many other countries are classified and discussed in this framework, and their usefulness for the
planning of mitigation strategies is discussed.
Publisher
MDPICitation
Rypdal, Rypdal. A Parsimonious Description and Cross-Country Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Curves. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH). 2020Metadata
Show full item recordCollections
Copyright 2020 The Author(s)