Unprecedented Vessel-Icing Climatology based on Spray-Icing Modelling and Reanalysis Data: A Risk-Based Decision-Making Input for Arctic Offshore Industries

Abstract

Marine icing is considered a major concern for vessels operating in the Arctic Ocean. Interaction between vessels and waves is the major source of sea spray that, under certain conditions, can lead to ice accretion on the vessels and thus create hazardous situations. Various models have been developed for the estimation of ice accretion rate using meteorological and oceanographic parameters. Various data sets are also available containing observations of spray icing events for different Arctic offshore regions. However, there is limited climatological information that can be used for providing decision-makers with the necessary information on optimal options and solutions in advance for assessing, managing, and mitigating the risks imposed by spray icing. In this study, a Marine-Icing model for the Norwegian Coast Guard (MINCOG) is adapted to study and analyze ice accretion on vessels operating in sea areas between Northern Norway and Spitsbergen, their temporal and spatial variations, as well as their statistical distributions over the region. This study uses NOrwegian ReAnalysis 10 km data (NORA10) of atmosphere and ocean parameters as input to the icing model from 1980 to 2012. The developed spray icing maps representing spatial and temporal variation of icing severity and spray-ice accretion rate, as well as the probability of the occurrence of icing events at different junctures and periods, can be used for risk-based decision-making tasks involved in industrial activities including shipping and offshore logistics operations in these sea areas.