Evaluating the use of biotic interactions in species distribution models

Abstract

Species distribution models are a key tool in predicting and projecting population changes in the past, present and future. In the past they have mostly focused on using abiotic interactions for their models. This may be inadequate however as biotic interactions play an important role in determining community composition. Climate change has created and will create many novel communities that have no modern analogue, understanding and predicting these is key to modern conservation and climate change mitigation. Through reviewing articles which use SDMs to project past, present and future distributions of species their level of biotic interaction will be evaluated. 122 articles were found using a set search criterion, of which 40 were found to be adequate. These articles were evaluated for biotic interaction and level of novelty they projected in their species compositions. It was found that though the number of articles finding novelty did decrease with the use of biotic interactions the level it decreased was not by much. Novel communities that were found with no biotic interaction did have biotic explanations found however. The significant threat of climate change means novelty is likely no matter the use of biotic interactions. Understand the full assemblages though requires the use of biotic interactions.