A study of the socioeconomic factors influencing migration in Russia

Abstract

Russia has experienced population decline in years and the economic development in Russia is largely restricted by labor shortage, particularly for the Far North and East region. In order to explore the migration mechanisms, six socioeconomic factors were selected to explore the influences on the net migration. Data from the 82 regions covering four time periods (2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015) was processed use spatial panel econometric analysis and the time-period fixed effects Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) was selected as the best fit model after tests. The results indicates that, unemployment and infant death rate are significantly negatively associated with net migration, while urbanization rate, urban scale and life expectancy are significantly positively associated with net migration; every 100 USD increase in per capita GRP (Gross Regional Product) is positively related with averagely 5.4 net migrates in the region; every 1 year increase in life expectancy would increase 1052 net migrates; every 1sqm increase in urban scale would increase the net migrates by 11.75 and every 1% increase in unemployment would lead to a decrease of 0.54 net migrates. Spillover effect was also found for per capita GRP and life expectancy, indicating that the increase of per capita GRP and life expectancy in neighboring regions can also increase the attractiveness in one region. It can be concluded that better job market, better economic status and health related wellbeing are all attracting factors for migrates and these factors can even make the neighborhood region more attractive for immigrates. Considering the ambitious development plan for the Russia Far North and East regions, related suggestions on attracting migrates are provided.