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dc.contributor.authorMyrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik
dc.contributor.authorFredriksen, Hege-Beate
dc.contributor.authorSørbye, Sigrunn Holbek
dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Martin wibe
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-10T10:01:53Z
dc.date.available2020-01-10T10:01:53Z
dc.date.issued2019-08-21
dc.description.abstractTemporal persistence in unforced climate variability makes detection of trends in surface temperature difficult. Part of the challenge is methodological since standard techniques assume a separation of time scales between trend and noise. In this work we present a novel Bayesian approach to trend detection under the assumption of long-range dependent natural variability, and we use estimates of historical forcing to test if the method correctly discriminates trends from low-frequency natural variability. As an application we analyze 2° × 2° gridded data from the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. In the time period from 1900 to 2015 we find positive trends for 99% of the grid points. For 84% of the grid points we are confident that the trend is positive, meaning that the 95% credibility interval for the temperature trend contained only positive values. This number increased to 89% when we used estimates of historical forcing to specify the noise model. For the time period from 1900 to 1985 the corresponding ratios were 42 and 52%. Our findings demonstrate that positive trends since 1900 are now detectable locally over most of Earth's surface.en_US
dc.identifier.citationMyrvoll-Nilsen E, Fredriksen H, Sørbye SH, Rypdal Mw. Warming trends and long-range dependent climate variability since year 1900: A Bayesian approach. Frontiers in Earth Science. 2019;7(214)en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1721057
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/feart.2019.00214
dc.identifier.issn2296-6463
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/17054
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherFrontiers Mediaen_US
dc.relation.journalFrontiers in Earth Science
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2019 The Author(s)en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400en_US
dc.titleWarming trends and long-range dependent climate variability since year 1900: A Bayesian approachen_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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