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dc.contributor.authorHenden, John-André
dc.contributor.authorTveraa, T.
dc.contributor.authorStien, Audun
dc.contributor.authorMellard, Jarad
dc.contributor.authorMarolla, Filippo
dc.contributor.authorIms, Rolf Anker
dc.contributor.authorYoccoz, Nigel
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-17T14:20:46Z
dc.date.available2021-11-17T14:20:46Z
dc.date.issued2021-05-27
dc.description.abstractThe impact of climate change on the dynamics of populations has been well documented and is widespread. However, weather variability influences populations both directly and indirectly, and is mediated by species interactions. This complexity may impede proper climate impact assessments. Hence, predicting the consequences of climate change may require including processes that occur both with time lags and across trophic levels. Based on our current understanding of the mechanisms linking local climate and trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems, we used a state-space formulation of a mediation model that allowed for assessing the relative contribution of direct and indirect environmental (weather and trophic) effects on reindeer Rangifer tarandus reproductive success. Our study showed that the mediator effect of body condition caused delayed but predictable effects of weather, plant productivity, and reindeer densities on reproductive success. Furthermore, these predictors also affected reproductive success directly and with the same sign, suggesting that direct and indirect effects pulled in the same direction with respect to their combined total effect on reproductive success. Hence, poor weather conditions not only affect calf production negatively the same year, but also increase the likelihood of poor reproductive success the subsequent year. The results support the expectation that calf slaughter mass (as a proxy for herd body condition) is an important indicator of the state of reindeer herds with respect to their production potential and resilience to weather events and climate change. Finally, the model framework employed in the present study can be further developed as a potential vehicle for near-term forecasting, and thereby constitutes a useful tool for adaptive management.en_US
dc.identifier.citationHenden JAH, Tveraa T, Stien A, Mellard JP, Marolla F, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG. Direct and indirect effects of environmental drivers on reindeer reproduction. Climate Research (CR). 2021en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1948712
dc.identifier.doi10.3354/cr01630
dc.identifier.issn0936-577X
dc.identifier.issn1616-1572
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/23054
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherInter Researchen_US
dc.relation.journalClimate Research (CR)
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/SUSTAIN?/?/Norway?/?/?/en_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2021 The Author(s)en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480en_US
dc.titleDirect and indirect effects of environmental drivers on reindeer reproductionen_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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