dc.contributor.author | Terum, Jens Andreas | |
dc.contributor.author | Mannberg, Andrea | |
dc.contributor.author | Hovem, Finn Kristoffer | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-11-04T12:58:11Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-11-04T12:58:11Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2022-08-30 | |
dc.description.abstract | Hazard-level forecasts constitute an important risk mitigation tool to reduce loss of
economic values and human life. Avalanche forecasts represent an example of this. As
for many other domains, avalanche risk is communicated using a color-coded, categorical risk scale aimed at informing the public about past, current, and future risk.
We report the results from three experiments in which we tested if an irrelevant past
trend in forecasted avalanche danger affects perceptions of current and future avalanche
risk. Our sample consisted of individuals from three different populations targeted by
national avalanche warning services. All three experiments showed that the perception
of avalanche risk is influenced by the trend, but that the effect is opposite for perceptions of current and expectations of future avalanche risk. While future avalanche risk
is extrapolated in the same direction as the change from the previous day, we found
that perceived current risk appears to be based on an average of past and current risk.
These effects diminish when we provide participants with a scale indicating the exact
level of avalanche danger. For most of our measurement instruments, however, the
effects remain significant. These results imply that targeted populations may consider
historic information more than was intended by the sender. As such, our results have
implications for both avalanche warning services and risk communication in general. | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Terum JA, Mannberg A, Hovem FK. Trend effects on perceived avalanche hazard. Risk Analysis. 2022:1-25 | en_US |
dc.identifier.cristinID | FRIDAID 2048343 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1111/risa.14003 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0272-4332 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1539-6924 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10037/27255 | |
dc.language.iso | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | Wiley | en_US |
dc.relation.journal | Risk Analysis | |
dc.rights.accessRights | openAccess | en_US |
dc.rights.holder | Copyright 2022 The Author(s) | en_US |
dc.rights.uri | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 | en_US |
dc.rights | Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) | en_US |
dc.title | Trend effects on perceived avalanche hazard | en_US |
dc.type.version | publishedVersion | en_US |
dc.type | Journal article | en_US |
dc.type | Tidsskriftartikkel | en_US |
dc.type | Peer reviewed | en_US |