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dc.contributor.authorTerum, Jens Andreas
dc.contributor.authorMannberg, Andrea
dc.contributor.authorHovem, Finn Kristoffer
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-04T12:58:11Z
dc.date.available2022-11-04T12:58:11Z
dc.date.issued2022-08-30
dc.description.abstractHazard-level forecasts constitute an important risk mitigation tool to reduce loss of economic values and human life. Avalanche forecasts represent an example of this. As for many other domains, avalanche risk is communicated using a color-coded, categorical risk scale aimed at informing the public about past, current, and future risk. We report the results from three experiments in which we tested if an irrelevant past trend in forecasted avalanche danger affects perceptions of current and future avalanche risk. Our sample consisted of individuals from three different populations targeted by national avalanche warning services. All three experiments showed that the perception of avalanche risk is influenced by the trend, but that the effect is opposite for perceptions of current and expectations of future avalanche risk. While future avalanche risk is extrapolated in the same direction as the change from the previous day, we found that perceived current risk appears to be based on an average of past and current risk. These effects diminish when we provide participants with a scale indicating the exact level of avalanche danger. For most of our measurement instruments, however, the effects remain significant. These results imply that targeted populations may consider historic information more than was intended by the sender. As such, our results have implications for both avalanche warning services and risk communication in general.en_US
dc.identifier.citationTerum JA, Mannberg A, Hovem FK. Trend effects on perceived avalanche hazard. Risk Analysis. 2022:1-25en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 2048343
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/risa.14003
dc.identifier.issn0272-4332
dc.identifier.issn1539-6924
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/27255
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.relation.journalRisk Analysis
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2022 The Author(s)en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)en_US
dc.titleTrend effects on perceived avalanche hazarden_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)