The cold consequences of war - An investigation into the effects of the Ukraine war on Russia's Arctic strategy

Abstract

This thesis examines how the ongoing war in Ukraine has affected Russia’s activities in the Arctic and to what extent these effects have caused Moscow to deviate from its official Arctic strategy, policies and activities. For centuries, the Arctic has played a visible role in Russian history. It has gone from being the land of opportunity and exploration during the Tsarist period, to constituting a vital part of Russia’s economic and ideological development, both in the Soviet Union and in 21st century Russia. The current Arctic policy of the Russian Federation has been mainly formulated in four strategic documents since 2008. Based on these documents and websites belonging to key actors within Russian Arctic policy, the thesis makes a comparative analysis between the policy development taking place before and after the outbreak of the war on February 24, 2022. The analysis focuses on the fields of energy and natural resources, transport infrastructure, military security, and international cooperation, as these are considered especially suitable for investigating the influence of foreign affairs on Russian domestic policy. The analysis finds that the strategy conducted in the Artic since 2008 has been characterized by a great deal of consistency or recurrence, mainly caused by a very slow implementation process. The thesis concludes that the Ukraine war and the subsequent sanctions imposed on Russia have harmed Arctic development in multiple areas. As a response to this, Moscow has searched for new ways of promoting private investment within the energy sector, increasing state financing of transport infrastructure, strengthening military control and defense, and seeking stronger cooperation with Asian partners. Despite these consequences, Russia still appears determined to deviate as little from its Arctic strategy as possible in a time of great international pressure. Furthermore, it is expected that Russia will continue this course in the future in order to obtain its development goals, both in regard to domestic and international Arctic policy.