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dc.contributor.authorLøvsletten, Ola
dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Martin wibe
dc.date.accessioned2017-03-30T13:46:00Z
dc.date.available2017-03-30T13:46:00Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.description.abstractThis paper studies regional climate variability for the time period 1900–2013 using parsimonious stochastic models. Instrumental data records on 5° × 5°, 2° × 2°, and equal-area grids are examined. A long-range dependent (LRD) stochastic process is used as a simplified description of the multitude of response times in the climate system. Fitting a linear trend to the global mean surface temperature (GMST) implies a warming of 0.08 decade−1, which is highly significant under an LRD null hypothesis (p < 10−4). The regional trends are distributed around the global mean trend, while the fluctuation levels increases when going from global to regional scale. The temperature fluctuations of the tropical oceans are observed to be strongly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, therefore, more consistent with autoregressive processes of order 1 [AR(1)]. A likelihood-ratio test is used to systematically determine the best null model [AR(1) or LRD]. About 80% of the regional warming trends are found to be significant (with a 5% significance level).en_US
dc.descriptionPublished version. Source at <a href=http://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0437.1>http://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0437.1</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.citationLøvsletten O, Rypdal Mw. Statistics of Regional Surface Temperatures after 1900: Long-Range versus Short-Range Dependence and Significance of Warming Trends. Journal of Climate. 2016;29(11):4057-4068en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1357296
dc.identifier.doi10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0437.1
dc.identifier.issn0894-8755
dc.identifier.issn1520-0442
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/10910
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.relation.journalJournal of Climate
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/RCN/FundingProgram/229754/Norway///en_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectMathematical and statistical techniquesen_US
dc.subjectStatisticsen_US
dc.subjectTime seriesen_US
dc.subjectModels and modelingen_US
dc.subjectStochastic modelsen_US
dc.subjectVariabilityen_US
dc.subjectTrendsen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410en_US
dc.titleStatistics of Regional Surface Temperatures after 1900: Long-Range versus Short-Range Dependence and Significance of Warming Trendsen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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