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dc.contributor.advisorFredriksen, Hege-Beate
dc.contributor.advisorRypdal, Martin
dc.contributor.authorHaug, Sofie Flyvholm
dc.date.accessioned2019-07-15T11:11:29Z
dc.date.available2019-07-15T11:11:29Z
dc.date.issued2019-05-31
dc.description.abstractEquilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) measures the long-term global surface temperature response due to a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. Estimates of ECS is not well constrained, 1.5-4.5C [Pachauri et al., 2014], and there is a wide spread between different Earth system models (ESMs). Recently it has been suggested that ECS can be constrained using an observed relationship between the statistical properties of the unforced temperature fluctuations extracted from historical runs of energy system models (ESMs), and the Gregory estimates of ECS in these models [Cox et al., 2018]. In this thesis I derive general fluctuation-response relations for linear stochastic climate models and investigate the claimed relation over an ensemble of ESMs. My findings are consistent with the existence of a fluctuation-response relation, but uncertainties are large, and I find it unlikely that they can be used to constrain ECS. My conclusion is that the time period 1850-present is too short for estimation of ECS, and that we ultimately have to rely on longer reconstructed temperature time series or satellite measurements of Earth’s energy imbalance.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/15760
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherUiT The Arctic University of Norwayen_US
dc.publisherUiT Norges arktiske universiteten_US
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2019 The Author(s)
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)en_US
dc.subject.courseIDEOM-3901
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Matematikk: 410::Anvendt matematikk: 413en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410::Applied mathematics: 413en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Andre geofag: 469en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Geosciences: 450::Other geosciences: 469en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Matematikk: 410::Statistikk: 412en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Mathematics: 410::Statistics: 412en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Informasjons- og kommunikasjonsvitenskap: 420::Matematisk modellering og numeriske metoder: 427en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Information and communication science: 420::Mathematical modeling and numerical methods: 427en_US
dc.titleOn the relationship between global mean temperature in historical runs of Earth system models and equilibrium climate sensitivityen_US
dc.typeMaster thesisen_US
dc.typeMastergradsoppgaveen_US


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Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)