Arctic sea-ice loss fuels extreme European snowfall

Abstract

The loss of Arctic sea-ice has been implicated with severe cold and snowy mid-latitude winters. However, the mechanisms and a direct link remain elusive due to limited observational evidence. Here we present atmospheric water vapour isotope measurements from Arctic Finland during ‘the Beast from the East’—a severe anticyclonic outbreak that brought heavy snowfall and freezing across Europe in February 2018. We find that an anomalously warm Barents Sea, with a 60% ice-free surface, supplied up to 9.3 mm d−1 moisture flux to this cold northeasterly airflow. We demonstrate that approximately 140 gigatonnes of water was evaporated from the Barents Sea during the event, potentially supplying up to 88% of the corresponding fresh snow over northern Europe. Reanalysis data show that from 1979 to 2020, net March evaporation across the Barents Sea increased by approximately 70 kg per square metre of sea-ice lost (r2 = 0.73, P < 0.01), concurrent with a 1.6 mm (water equivalent) per year increase in Europe’s maximum snowfall. Our analysis directly links Arctic sea-ice loss with increased evaporation and extreme snowfall, and signifies that by 2080, an Atlantified ice-free Barents Sea will be a major source of winter moisture for continental Europe.