Why is it safe – enough? Decision-making in avalanche terrain

Abstract

The snowy mountains of the world attract an increasing number of backcountry recreationalists, but nice skiing comes with a risk. Every year about 140 people in Europe and North America lose their life in avalanche accidents. 9 out of 10 accidents are triggered by the victim or someone in their party. Therefore, improving decision-making is important. Avalanche terrain decision-making is complex and involves considering a range of potential factors. The assessment of these factors is associated with varying degrees of uncertainty, and uncertainty characterizes the decision-making environment. This thesis aimed to gather more insight into the foundation in avalanche decision-making to improve decision quality. In five separate studies, decision basis, decision competence, and the decision process, three aspects of importance for decision quality are studied. In this thesis's first study, existing decision-making frameworks are investigated, providing the first-ever comprehensive review of the underlying factors. This study also described each method's structure and the ideas behind the overall approach to the decision-making process. The second study revealed a large difference in the number of factors, structure, and overall approach to decision-making between existing frameworks and expert decision-making. In the third study, the understanding of avalanche risk factors among backcountry recreationalists was investigated. The results demonstrated that a factor's relevance did not depend on avalanche education, but so did how precisely the factor could be assessed. This suggests that even non-experts could apply analytical, knowledge-based decision-making given they are provided the proper education. The avalanche forecast is an important source of information when planning a trip in avalanche terrain. Results in the fourth study showed that recreationalists understanding of the avalanche forecast aligned with expert's understanding and confirms the importance of the forecast to the end-users. In the fifth and final study in this thesis, frame selection on risk perception and how it affects behaviour intentions was investigated. The study demonstrates that risk judgments framed in terms of safety (How safe is this decent?) result in more cautious, conservative judgments than when framed in terms of danger (How dangerous is this decent?).