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dc.contributor.authorFredriksen, Hege-Beate
dc.contributor.authorRugenstein, Maria A.A.
dc.contributor.authorGraversen, Rune
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-03T13:23:36Z
dc.date.available2022-03-03T13:23:36Z
dc.date.issued2021-12-06
dc.description.abstractA new algorithm is proposed for estimating time-evolving global forcing in climate models. The method is a further development of the work of Forster et al. (2013), <a href=https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50174>https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50174</a>, taking into account the non-constancy of the global feedbacks. We assume that the non-constancy of this global feedback can be explained as a time-scale dependence, associated with linear temperature responses to the forcing on different time scales. With this method we obtain stronger forcing estimates than previously assumed for the representative concentration pathway experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The reason for the higher future forcing is that the global feedback parameter is more negative at shorter time scales than at longer time scales, consistent with the equilibrium climate sensitivity increasing with equilibration time. Our definition of forcing provides a clean separation of forcing and response, and we find that linear temperature response functions estimated from experiments with abrupt quadrupling of CO<sub>2</sub> can be used to predict responses also for future scenarios. In particular, we demonstrate that for most models, the response to our new forcing estimate applied on the 21st century scenarios provides a global surface temperature up to year 2100 consistent with the output of coupled model versions of the respective model.en_US
dc.descriptionThis is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Fredriksen, H.-B., Rugenstein, M., & Graversen, R. (2021). Estimating radiative forcing with a nonconstant feedback parameter and linear response. <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126</i>, e2020JD034145, which has been published in final form at <a href=https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034145>https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034145</a>. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with <a href=https://authorservices.wiley.com/author-resources/Journal-Authors/licensing/self-archiving.html>Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions</a>. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.en_US
dc.identifier.citationFredriksen, H.-B., Rugenstein, M., & Graversen, R. (2021). Estimating radiative forcing with a nonconstant feedback parameter and linear response. <i>Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 126</i>, e2020JD034145.en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 1971122
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2020JD034145
dc.identifier.issn2169-897X
dc.identifier.issn2169-8996
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/24252
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherWileyen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Unionen_US
dc.relation.journalJournal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2021 The American Geophysical Union / Wiley & Sonsen_US
dc.titleEstimating Radiative Forcing With a Nonconstant Feedback Parameter and Linear Responseen_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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