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dc.contributor.authorSebastiani, Giovanni
dc.contributor.authorSpassiani, Ilaria
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-10T11:42:47Z
dc.date.available2023-01-10T11:42:47Z
dc.date.issued2022-10-25
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we deal with the problem of estimating the reproduction number Rt during an epidemic, as it represents one of the most used indicators to study and control this phenomenon. In particular, we focus on two issues. First, to estimate Rt , we consider the use of positive test case data as an alternative to the first symptoms data, which are typically used. We both theoretically and empirically study the relationship between the two approaches. Second, we modify a method for estimating Rt during an epidemic that is widely used by public institutions in several countries worldwide. Our procedure is not affected by the problems deriving from the hypothesis of Rt local constancy, which is assumed in the standard approach. We illustrate the results obtained by applying the proposed methodologies to real and simulated SARS-CoV-2 datasets. In both cases, we also apply some specific methods to reduce systematic and random errors affecting the data. Our results show that the Rt during an epidemic can be estimated by using the positive test data, and that our estimator outperforms the standard estimator that makes use of the first symptoms data. It is hoped that the techniques proposed here could help in the study and control of epidemics, particularly the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.en_US
dc.identifier.citationSebastiani, Spassiani. New Insights into the Estimation of Reproduction Numbers during an Epidemic. Vaccines. 2022;10(11)en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 2087266
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/vaccines10111788
dc.identifier.issn2076-393X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/28111
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherMDPIen_US
dc.relation.journalVaccines
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2022 The Author(s)en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)en_US
dc.titleNew Insights into the Estimation of Reproduction Numbers during an Epidemicen_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)