Assessing ocean ensemble drift predictions by comparison with observed oil slicks
Permanent link
https://hdl.handle.net/10037/30154Date
2023-05-16Type
Journal articleTidsskriftartikkel
Peer reviewed
Abstract
Geophysical models are cornerstone pieces in marine forecasting of floating
objects and pollution, such as marine surface oil slicks. Trajectory forecasts of oil
spills inherit the uncertainties from the underlying geophysical forcing. In this
work we compare the forecast capabilities of an ocean ensemble prediction
system (EPS) to those from a higher resolution deterministic model on the
representation of oil slick drift. As reference, we use produced water (PW)
slicks detected and delineated from 41 C–band Sentinel-1A/B satellite
synthetic aperture radar images between April and December, 2021. We found
that the EPS provided at least equivalent member-wise results relative to
simulations forced with the deterministic model. Ensemble verification through
rank histograms and spread-error relationship showed that including the ocean
fields is necessary to address model uncertainties. Whether considering the
ocean field or not, the modeled slicks were counterclockwise rotated between
20° and 30° relative to the ones observed in the satellite images, and these were
deflected about 45° to the right of the observed wind direction.
Publisher
Frontiers MediaCitation
Martins de Aguiar V, Röhrs J, Johansson A M, Eltoft T. Assessing ocean ensemble drift predictions by comparison with observed oil slicks. Frontiers in Marine Science. 2023;10:1-15Metadata
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