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dc.contributor.authorBochow, Nils
dc.contributor.authorPoltronieri, Anna
dc.contributor.authorRobinson, Alexander
dc.contributor.authorMontoya, Marisa
dc.contributor.authorRypdal, Martin Wibe
dc.contributor.authorBoers, Niklas
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-20T10:38:33Z
dc.date.available2023-10-20T10:38:33Z
dc.date.issued2023-10-18
dc.description.abstractMelting of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) in response to anthropogenic global warming poses a severe threat in terms of global sea-level rise (SLR)1 . Modelling and palaeoclimate evidence suggest that rapidly increasing temperatures in the Arctic can trigger positive feedback mechanisms for the GrIS, leading to self-sustained melting<sup>2–4</sup> , and the GrIS has been shown to permit several stable states<sup>5</sup> . Critical transitions are expected when the global mean temperature (GMT) crosses specifc thresholds, with substantial hysteresis between the stable states<sup>6</sup> . Here we use two independent ice-sheet models to investigate the impact of diferent overshoot scenarios with varying peak and convergence temperatures for a broad range of warming and subsequent cooling rates. Our results show that the maximum GMT and the time span of overshooting given GMT targets are critical in determining GrIS stability. We fnd a threshold GMT between 1.7 °C and 2.3 °C above preindustrial levels for an abrupt ice-sheet loss. GrIS loss can be substantially mitigated, even for maximum GMTs of 6 °C or more above preindustrial levels, if the GMT is subsequently reduced to less than 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels within a few centuries. However, our results also show that even temporarily overshooting the temperature threshold, without a transition to a new ice-sheet state, still leads to a peak in SLR of up to several metres.en_US
dc.identifier.citationBochow, Poltronieri, Robinson, Montoya, Rypdal, Boers. Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet. Nature. 2023en_US
dc.identifier.cristinIDFRIDAID 2186143
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
dc.identifier.issn0028-0836
dc.identifier.issn1476-4687
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/31590
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Natureen_US
dc.relation.ispartofBochow, N. (2024). Modelling the Earth System - From Tipping Elements to Reconstructions. (Doctoral thesis). <a href=https://hdl.handle.net/10037/33717>https://hdl.handle.net/10037/33717</a>.
dc.relation.journalNature
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/820970/EU/Tipping Points in the Earth System/TiPES/
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/956170/EU/Multiscales and Critical Transitions in the Earth System/CriticalEarth/
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2023 The Author(s)en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0en_US
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)en_US
dc.titleOvershooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheeten_US
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
Med mindre det står noe annet, er denne innførselens lisens beskrevet som Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)