Organization of the magnetosphere during substorms

Abstract

The change in degree of organization of the magnetosphere during substorms is investigated by analyzing various geomagnetic indices, as well as interplanetary magnetic field z-component and solar wind velocity x-component. We conclude that the magnetosphere self-organizes globally during substorms, but neither the magnetosphere nor the solar wind become more predictable in the course of a substorm. This conclusion is based on analysis of substorms in the period from 2000 to 2002. A minimal dynamic-stochastic model of the driven magnetosphere that reproduces many statistical features of substorm indices is discussed.