Warming of Atlantic Water in two west Spitsbergen fjords over the last century (1912-2009)
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https://hdl.handle.net/10037/5986Date
2013Type
Journal articleTidsskriftartikkel
Peer reviewed
Author
Pavlov, Alexey K.; Tverberg, Vigdis; Ivanov, Boris; Nilsen, Frank; Falk-Petersen, Stig; Granskog, Mats A.Abstract
The recently observed warming of west Spitsbergen fjords has led to anomalous
sea-ice conditions and has implications for the marine ecosystem. We investigated
long-term trends of maximum temperature of AtlanticWater (AW) in
two west Spitsbergen fjords. The data set is composed of more than 400
oceanographic stations for Isfjorden and Grønfjorden (78.18N), spanning from
1876 to 2009. Trends throughout the last century (1912 2009) indicate an
increase of 1.98C and 2.18C in the maximum temperature during autumn for
Isfjorden and Grønfjorden, respectively. A recent warming event in the
beginning of the 21st century is found to be more than 18C higher than the
second warmest period in the time series. Mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) data
from ERA-40 and ERA-Interim data sets produced by the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and mean temperature in the core of the
West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) at the Sørkapp Section along 76.38N were used
to explain the variability of the maximum temperature. A correlation analysis
confirmed previous findings, showing that variability in the oceanography of
the fjords can be explained mainly by two external factors: AW temperature
variability in the WSC and regional patterns of the wind stress field. To take both
processes into consideration, a multiple regression model accounting for
temperature in the WSC core and MSLP over the area was developed. The
predicted time series shows a reasonable agreement with observed maxima
temperature in Isfjorden for the period 1977 2009 (N 24), with a statistically
significant multiple correlation coefficient of 0.60 (R2 0.36) at PB0.05.
Publisher
Norsk Polarinstitutt, OsloCitation
Polar Research 32:11206(2013) s. -Metadata
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