Petrodevelopment 2030: Socio-economic consequences of an extensive oil and gas development in the Barents Sea

Abstract

The theme of this report is the regional socio-economic consequences of an extensive oil and gas development in the Barents Sea. The regional focus area includes Finnmark County and Murmansk Oblast. The introductory chapter explains the purpose of the study and the way the work has been done. The next two chapters provide a detailed account of the region and its basic characteristics. The general finding is that the region strongly needs a new stimulus to growth, but that it is badly prepared for receiving a coming oil and gas boom. The following chapter gives a brief overview of the oil and gas sectors in Norway and Russia and introduces the baseline scenario, which indicates the expected scale and scope of future petroleum activity in the Barents Sea. After this three scenarios are presented. They all have 2030 as their time horizon. The first scenario depicts the frontier - the Arctic vanguard – which is a flourishing region by 2030. The second scenario tells the story of the Arctic outsider; a region becoming more and more marginalized. The third scenario foresees a shifting balance, where oil and gas development mainly takes place on the Russian side of the border, leaving the whole region in the shadow of the new energy superpower. The final chapter sums up the key challenges of the region, discusses the scenarios, and highlights the basic preconditions for an extensive oil and gas development to benefit the region.