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dc.contributor.authorKeogan, Katharine
dc.contributor.authorDaunt, Francis
dc.contributor.authorWanless, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorPhillips, Richard A.
dc.contributor.authorWalling, Craig A.
dc.contributor.authorAgnew, Philippa
dc.contributor.authorAinley, David G.
dc.contributor.authorAnker-Nilssen, Tycho
dc.contributor.authorBallard, Grant
dc.contributor.authorBarrett, Robert T
dc.contributor.authorBarton, Kerry J.
dc.contributor.authorBech, Claus
dc.contributor.authorBecker, Peter
dc.contributor.authorBerglund, Per-Arvid
dc.contributor.authorBollache, Loïc
dc.contributor.authorBond, Alexander L.
dc.contributor.authorBouwhuis, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorBradley, Russell W.
dc.contributor.authorBurr, Zofia
dc.contributor.authorCamphuysen, Kees
dc.contributor.authorCatry, Paulo
dc.contributor.authorChiaradia, Andre
dc.contributor.authorChristensen-Dalsgaard, Signe
dc.contributor.authorCuthbert, Richard
dc.contributor.authorDehnhard, Nina
dc.contributor.authorDescamps, Sébastien
dc.contributor.authorDiamond, Tony
dc.contributor.authorDivoky, George
dc.contributor.authorDrummond, Hugh
dc.contributor.authorDugger, Katie M.
dc.contributor.authorDunn, Michael J.
dc.contributor.authorEmmerson, Louise
dc.contributor.authorErikstad, Kjell Einar
dc.contributor.authorFort, Jérôme
dc.contributor.authorFraser, William
dc.contributor.authorGenovart, Meritxell
dc.contributor.authorGilg, Olivier
dc.contributor.authorGonzález-Solís, Jacob
dc.contributor.authorGranadeiro, José Pedro
dc.contributor.authorGrémillet, David
dc.contributor.authorHansen, Jannik
dc.contributor.authorHanssen, Sveinn Are
dc.contributor.authorHarris, Mike
dc.contributor.authorHedd, April
dc.contributor.authorHinke, Jefferson
dc.contributor.authorIgual, José Manuel
dc.contributor.authorJahncke, Jaime
dc.contributor.authorJones, Ian
dc.contributor.authorKappes, Peter J.
dc.contributor.authorLang, Johannes
dc.contributor.authorLangset, Magdalene
dc.contributor.authorLescroël, Amélie
dc.contributor.authorLorentsen, Svein-Håkon
dc.contributor.authorLyver, Phil O’B.
dc.contributor.authorMallory, Mark
dc.contributor.authorMoe, Børge
dc.contributor.authorMontevecchi, William A.
dc.contributor.authorMonticelli, David
dc.contributor.authorMostello, Carolyn
dc.contributor.authorNewell, Mark
dc.contributor.authorNicholson, Lisa
dc.contributor.authorNisbet, Ian
dc.contributor.authorOlsson, Olof
dc.contributor.authorOro, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorPattison, Vivian
dc.contributor.authorPoisbleau, Maud
dc.contributor.authorPyk, Tanya
dc.contributor.authorQuintana, Flavio
dc.contributor.authorRamos, Jaime A.
dc.contributor.authorRamos, Raül
dc.contributor.authorReiertsen, Tone Kirstin
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez, Cristina
dc.contributor.authorRyan, Peter
dc.contributor.authorSanz-Aguilar, Ana
dc.contributor.authorSchmidt, Niels M.
dc.contributor.authorShannon, Paula
dc.contributor.authorSittler, Benoit
dc.contributor.authorSouthwell, Colin
dc.contributor.authorSurman, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorSvagelj, Walter S.
dc.contributor.authorTrivelpiece, Wayne
dc.contributor.authorWarzybok, Pete
dc.contributor.authorWatanuki, Yutaka
dc.contributor.authorWeimerskirch, Henri
dc.contributor.authorWilson, Peter R.
dc.contributor.authorWood, Andrew G.
dc.contributor.authorPhilimore, Albert B.
dc.contributor.authorLewis, Sue
dc.date.accessioned2018-09-19T08:23:54Z
dc.date.available2018-09-19T08:23:54Z
dc.date.issued2018-04-02
dc.description.abstractReproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity, and is often sensitive to climatic conditions. Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey. This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers. However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction. Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (−0.020 days yr<sup>−1</sup>) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (−0.272 days °C<sup>−1</sup>) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe University of Edinburgh NERC CEH JNCC The Research Fund – Flanders FWO The National Research Council of Argentina Wildlife Conservation Society FCT – Portugal The Falkland Islands Government NSERC Environment Canada New Brunswick Wildlife Council The Natural Environment Research Council BirdLife Australia Deakin University Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft The Australian Antarctic programme The Norwegian Environment Agency Ministry of Climate and Environment Ministry of Petroleum and Energy The Norwegian Oil and Gas Association The French Polar Institute US National Science Foundation New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employmenten_US
dc.descriptionAccepted manuscript version. Published version available at <a href=https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z> https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z</a>.en_US
dc.identifier.citationKeogan, K., Daunt, F., Wanless, S., Phillips, R.A., Walling, C.A., Agnew, P., ... Lewis, S. (2018). Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds. Nature Climate Change, 8, 313-318. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0115-zen_US
dc.identifier.issn1758-678X
dc.identifier.issn1758-6798
dc.identifier.otherFRIDAID 1577542
dc.identifier.other10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10037/13831
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherNature Publishing Groupen_US
dc.relation.journalNature Climate Change
dc.rights.accessRightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488en_US
dc.subjectVDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488en_US
dc.titleGlobal phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirdsen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typeTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US


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