Avalanche decision-making frameworks: Classification and description of underlying factors

Abstract

Snow avalanches are a complex phenomenon and correctly assessing avalanche danger is crucial in order to avoid accidents. To aid the decision-making process, different decision-making frameworks (DMFs) have been developed. However, each DMF assesses different factors. We identified 44 factors included in the ten most commonly used DMFs, supplemented by nine factors regarded as important by avalanche professionals, resulting in 53 factors. We classify and describe each factor's possible strengths, weaknesses and limitations. Many factors are shared by the DMFs, but there are differences when it comes to type of factor and emphasis. The number of factors used by the different DMFs varies from 11 to 31. 81 out of 100 experts who participated in our survey use >33 factors in their decision-making, and regard other factors as more important than the ones emphasised in most DMFs. We discuss the usage of the factors and provide recommendations. Our classification and description of the factors contribute to a better understanding of why the developers of the different DMFs have included them in their frameworks. This is fundamental for a better understanding of expert use or lack of use of DMFs, and why some DMFs or single factors are preferred to others.