Independent Validation of a Risk Stratification Model Predicting Survival in Patients With Metastatic Hormone-sensitive Prostate Cancer

Abstract

Background/Aim: The aim of this study was to analyze the survival predictions obtained from an online nomogram, originally developed in two US patient cohorts with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, because clinical practice and survival outcomes may vary on an international level. Patients and Methods: A retrospective single-institution study of 197 patients, managed according to Norwegian guidelines, was performed. Model-predicted survival was assessed online and compared to observed survival. Results: The median overall survival was 32.7 months. The nomogram predicted 3-year survival probabilities of 3-72% and 5-year probabilities of 0-54% in individual patients. Regarding 3-year prediction, the median was 47% (observed 3-year survival: 45%). The corresponding 5-year figures were 30% (nomogram) and 25% (observed). In univariate Cox regression, predicted 3-year and 5-year likelihood of survival were associated with observed survival of the study population (both p<0.001). Conclusion: The survival predictions from the US nomogram were correlated with observed survival in this Norwegian validation study.