Antarctic ice sheet modelling – the needs, challenges, and opportunities for Norwegian Antarctic research

Abstract

Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss accounts for the largest uncertainties in global sea level projections. Antarctic meltwater and iceberg calving, together with changes in sea ice, also impact global ocean circulation, carbon uptake, and ecosystems. To understand, quantify and predict these changes and impacts, we employ climate and ice sheet models. Over the past 5+ years the Norwegian polar research community has been building up expertise in Antarctic ice sheet modelling. In this presentation I aim to highlight our recent progress, and to identify our future needs, challenges, and opportunities. An example of recent progress is our work on simulating ocean – ice sheet interactions (recently finished EU project TiPACCs). This work revealed that abrupt changes in the ice sheet can occur, but that we have likely not crossed these tipping points – yet. Our latest science focusses on (1) the impact of Antarctic meltwater on ocean circulation (e.g. EU project OCEAN:ICE), (2) linkages between ice sheets and the global heat budget and carbon cycle (e.g. SFF iC3), and (3) Antarctic Ice Sheet projections (e.g. ISMIP). I will make suggestions for the tools we need to (continue) to be a world player in Antarctic ice sheet modelling. On a national level, there is a strong will to collaborate on Antarctic modelling, especially linking Bergen and Tromsø researchers (e.g. SFF iC3, RCN CLIM2ANT). This brings great opportunities, especially if we acknowledge and overcome the (potential) challenges that collaboration brings. Making Antarctic research ideas and outcomes easily accessible to a wide Norwegian audience is important. Not only for informing, but also for building a sustainable and solid Antarctic research basis in Norway. If time permits, I am happy to share some examples of outreach projects where art and comic books made our, sometimes heavy, Antarctic research interesting for a general audience.