State Capacity and Democratization in Post-Soviet States: A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

The regime trajectories of post-Soviet states have been attributed to a wide range of explanations, from the historical and structural, to elite actions in critical contemporary periods. In this thesis the relationship between state capacity, with extractive, coercive, and administrative dimensions, and democracy are tested. A fixed effects panel data analysis are utilised, supported by a polyinomial model. Results suggest no general tendency of association of capacity and democracy exists in post-Soviet countries. Rather, for some countries capacity are strongly associated with democracy, while for other countries capacity are associated with authoritarian rule. The differentiation are primarily based on countries, regional divides does not suffice in capturing the variation of the direction of the association.