The Nile River Dispute Between Egypt and Ethiopia: A Study of Resource Management, Legal Challenges, and the Politics of Survival in an Anarchic International System

Abstract

Egypt is currently facing increasing water scarcity, primarily due to its dependence on the Nile River and its rapidly growing population. Historically, Egypt managed to control the Nile through several treaties established during colonial times, which went largely unchallenged. Ethiopia is now contesting this control through the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. This thesis addresses the primary research question: How has Egypt historically exercised control over the Nile, and how is this control challenged by the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? The three additional research questions examine the legal, political, and strategic shifts that have influenced the current dispute.

The study employs a qualitative case study methodology, focusing on the document analysis of historical treaties, international legal frameworks, and existing scholarly work. It is framed within a neorealist perspective and utilizes theories such as the tragedy of the commons, game theory, and international law to examine the strategic behavior of the involved states. This thesis provides thorough insight into the dispute by exploring power dynamics, legal uncertainty, and resource management.

The findings suggest that Egypt’s historical dominance originates from treaties established during colonial rule, whereas Ethiopia is leveraging its geographical position to advance development. The conflict is exacerbated by a lack of trust, the absence of binding legal frameworks, and minimal cooperation, all factors characteristic of an anarchic international system. While the anarchic characteristics of the international system persist, the potential for conflict remains high, and the situation risks evolving into a tragedy of the commons.